A trader should have no opinion. The stronger your opinion, the harder it is to get out of a losing position.
- Paul Rotter -

Formal education will make you a living, self-education will make you a fortune.
- Jim Rohn -

Experienced traders control risk,
inexperienced traders chase gains.
- Alan Farley -

The biggest secret about success is that there isn’t any big secret about it, or if there is, then it’s a secret from me, too. The idea of searching for some secret for trading success misses the point.
- Ed Seykota -

The answer to successful trading cannot be found in any coach, book, or system. Success is something that is cultivated over time, with directed effort.
- Brett Steenbarger -

The less I cared about whether or not I was wrong, the clearer
things became, making it much easier to move in and out of positions,
cutting my losses short to make myself mentally available to take the next opportunity.
- Mark Douglas -

I never let school interfere with my education.
- Mark Twain -

Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not. If a market is strong, buy more. If a market is weak, sell more.
- Dennis Gartman -

The most important rule of trading is to play good defense, not great offense. Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum possible draw down.
- Paul Tudor Jones -

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.
- Victor ‘Trader Vic’ Sperandeo -

If a man empties his purse into his head, no man can take it away from him. An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.
- Benjamin Franklin -

The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.
- Jesse Livermore -

Pure price systems are close enough to the North Pole that any departure tends to bring you farther south.
- William Eckhardt -

People who matter are most aware that everyone else does, too.
- Malcolm S. Forbes -

Fundamental facts of primary trends and their corrections:
Movements in the primary direction tend to be extended and laborious, while secondary movements against the primary trend tend to be sudden, often violent, and short-lived.

An object at rest tends to stay at rest and an object in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.
- Isaac Newton (First Law of Motion) -

Time is more important than price. When time is up price will reverse.
- W. D. Gann -

It’s OK to be wrong; it’s unforgiving to stay wrong.
- Martin Zweig -

Taking small losses is part of the game. Taking large losses can take you out of the game.
- Doug Kass -

Have the courage to say no.
Have the courage to face the truth.
Have the courage to do the right thing because it is right.
- W. Clement Stone -

People often need your love most when they appear to deserve it the least.

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.
- Bertrand Russell -

What you are afraid to do is a clear indicator of what you need to do.

Our greatest glory is not in never failing,
but in rising every time we fall.
- Confucius -

People who pride themselves on their “complexity” and deride others for being “simplistic” should realize that the truth is often not very complicated. What gets complex is evading the truth.
- Thomas Sowell -

If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.
- Joe Granville -

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
- Samuel L. Clemens -

Measure your success against the zero line.
Not the ‘maximum potential’ line.
- Jason Leavitt -

Imbalance or abnormity is never so dangerous as when it is widely perceived or accepted as being normal.

The worst thing you can do is not to try.
- Linda Bradford Raschke -

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.
- Wayne Gretzky -

We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.
- Aristotle -

When everyone thinks alike, there isn’t much thinking taking place.

Get out when you can, not when you have to.
- Jesse Livermore -

Stay focused and calm.
- Mystifier -

Losers live in the past. Winners live for the future.
- Jason Leavitt -

When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

The market loves to punish the majority.

Rule No 1: Never lose money.
Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.
- Warren Buffett -

I tend to cut bad trades as soon as possible, forget them, and then move on to new opportunities. The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses and (3) cutting losses. If you follow these three rules you may have a chance.
- Ed Seykota -

Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.
- Warren Buffett -

Gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit.
- J.P. Morgan -

To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.
- Jesse Livermore -

Coffee has seen a lot of buying over the past few days and is now ready for a lift higher. Time to see how high it wants to go….. Stop placement is at 174.00 with a entry long @ 177.00…….

This is a subject that is rarely touched on in true detail since everyone is trying to sell entry indicators.

On your journey to becoming a profitable trader you will find it a bit rough.  At first everyone looses money consistently for a long period of time unless mentored. This part is the tuition and most cant hang around to get past this point. Once your knowledge starts to overcome your fear and anxiety you become a break even trader and this period lasts as long as you let it. The reason why this second step is up to you is that it is purely psychological. Being able to trade your signals and to hold onto the winners takes a lot of nerves. Yes, to hold a winning trade takes a lot more nerve than taking a loosing one. Once you have learned how to accept your losses at this point you start to hold the runners and milk them till the end. This is mostly due to the fact of reviewing your trade log and seeing the amount of profitable trades that you only took scraps out of. Once this has been accomplished and you are holding your runners and killing your loosers within a 1-2 points you are there…. The money flows in and trading starts to become fun…… The average timeline on this is around 10 years unless you have a mentor. The reason it takes so long is all the 1000′s of ways you learn not to trade before you find the correct way and once this has been found you are looking at another 10000 hours….. Good luck and there is light at the end of this tunnel!!! Keep it up……

Been down in the Caribbean for a bit and now time to get back to work….. 

When I first became a trader many years ago I would watch CNBC thinking they were the knowledge of the market. Taking the next big trade they had and I would be so excided to jump into it, I almost always would end up holding the bag on the wrong side though. Then months after I had done my own research, testing etc I found a trade on my own and placed it. I was long Yen into the night waking to see it amaizingly in my favor. So much so that it was all over CNBC. I unmuted the tv to see what they had to say but they didnt have anything put together except wow the Yen is really moving, this should come back soon and resume the trend. 4 days later the move was still running and they came out and said there reasonings why it moved so much so fast.

CNBC is great but always remember they are just news and if you do take any insight from them make sure it is market sentiment. Often times if 98% are long it will only take 5% to get a bear sell off started.

Inter-market Analysis can be a great tool at times but don’t get married to the relationships you find. For the 2003-2008 market rally Gold and Dollar were almost always opposite and in all series 3 test books Gold is the ultimate Dollar hedge. Countless times this showed untrue over recent years rallies and slides. All in all it doesn’t matter what the correlation used but that you do not get married to it. Understand the market you are trading first and use I.A. to back up your thoughts. Have a great day!!

Trading price alone only has one advantage, it gets a trader away from those double lagging indicators. Other than that its only benefit is to show where things are at. The ultimate and biggest underlying factor in becoming a profitable trader lies in supply and demand. It gives the reason why  price should move along with the direction. Price is only there to follow the road map set by S&D. I am sure you are wondering how one must go about reading S&D. It is not by any type of chart pattern (that can be found in any weather chart) or any other funky astronomy or magical computer. This is where the screen time comes in. Have a great day!  ;)

Probing a market is very beneficial when done at the correct times and gives a birds eye view of the current health of the market in that particular area.  The correct times to probe are during wash outs or when a trader believes a market is being taken over by sellers or buyers. This is often done by large traders to get a read on the market but is rarely if ever discussed.

How to Probe: If a trader believes a market is taken over by sellers and that the market is about to dump off a cliff he should fire a couple singles off as market sells. Sending a sell market will instantly send a order looking for the nearest resting buy order and if this order is 5+ ticks away from where it was  submitted this shows  that there are very few buyers in that area.  Once this has been discovered a trader can now put on size and know he will be one of the last sell orders filled. From here it is only a matter of time till the manipulator will throw size at the market to crack it for the run of the cliff.

Again this can be used in many different situations but gives the best view of supply and demand and also keys you into the order book showing the fake side.

Happy Trades

Dont let the news anchors scare you just because they may be. All the people on TV are talking of these markets as hard to read and unpredictable. As a trader these markets are Candy Land, trends are long and there are many signals a day opening up the risk reward opportunity.

Just for fun put yourself in a brokers shoes. Your analyst tells you that stock xyz or commodity for that matter looks like ag great buy so you open the terminal and jump in. 5min later you are up 10min later you are down and these swings are ten times what they were a few weeks ago. Even if you are a long term holder your clients will most likely call and ask what with all the volatility. The end result is, brokers are only salesmen and (most) cant trade themselves out of a paper bag. (and in no means am I knocking them) While the few that are profitable traders smile all  the way to the bank.

Have a great day!!!

Many times when traders think of volatility they think of risk but in most cases they are wrong. The risk should not be any greater than the usual. As long as the tape is still thoroughly scrutinized the risk will continue to be the same but the reward will be a lot greater! So all hail the volatility and let it stick around for a bit….. Have a great day!!